Nationalism, Majoritarianism and distortions like light through prism...Part 1

Source: www.timesofindia.com 

India on the surface is the world’s largest democracy, but in reality underneath all the glib narrative is run by a muddled Hindutva ideology. Hindutva is grounded in a myth, wherein the subcontinent flourished only when governed by Hindus. The Hindutva belief is that India’s original Hindu identity needs to be restored to bring an era of eternal peace and prosperity. The irony in this belief is the Indian subcontinent, in its entire existence, was never based on a single religion. The largest ruling monarch in India’s history prior to colonial unification was the Mauryan dynasty under Asoka who espoused Buddhism and not Hinduism. It’s worthy to note that Buddhism came into existence based on the frailties of the Hindu religion or its mutations. Subsequently the only largest monarch were the Mughals, who were Islamic. Quite contrary to the Hindutva delusions, India flourished as a pluralistic society where many religions evolved from this very land and many foreign ones were freely embraced. What made the sub-continent great  apart from its diversity and spiritual wealth was it’s immense natural resources and free trade. All principles we must actively attempt to reignite.

Hindutva espouses a governance under the principles of Ram Rajya . Ram Rajya translates to the rule of lord Ram. It was upon Ram’s return from banishment, after slaying a Sri Lankan king, ensued a utopian age of Ram Rajya. However, this entire period in history is so sparsely documented that one has to wholly rely on poems written by bards known to exaggerate and glorify the ruling kings as gods. The  only documented proof of Ram’s existence lies in Valmiki’s poem Ramayan. He with utmost devotion proclaims that lord Ram ruled for eleven thousand flawless years. Ram in this utopia ruled  a state free of disease, one where everything flourished and bloomed. 

However, upon close examination one will find, the factual contradictions quite extraordinary.  Ram’s birth, based on astrological dating, is 5th January 5089BC, this will make his reign pre-Sumerians. Even if that was true, the dating makes it impossible for him to have ruled for eleven thousand years, unless Valmiki wrote the Ramayana three thousand years from now in 5911AD. However archeological dating reveals the Ramayana was written in the 5th century AD. 

Why all of this is relevant? The current Indian prime minister Modi is touted to be by many as Ram reincarnate and his governance the modern day Ram Rajya. The symbolism of this is by resurrecting the Hindu temple under Modi in Ram’s birth place Ayodya, through the destruction of the Babri mosque. These are clever symbolism, much like the Ramayan, to brand in people’s minds the end of one era (i.e. Islamic) and the beginning of the era of Hindutva. Well, let us at least hope it doesn’t last eleven thousand years.

The rising Hindu majoritarianism stems from a fear psychosis that the 15% Islamic minority is imminently out populating the 80% majority Hindu population . The facts of course are quite different. The Islamic population has grown at an average annual growth rate of 2.54% since 1961 and will require an additional 200 years to even come close to topple the Hindus as a majority religion. That’s a lot for a religion founded just 1500 years ago. While muslims constitute 15% of the population they only hold 27/543 seats in the lower house of the parliament, less than 5%, and thereby remain politically under represented. Muslims also remain the poorest religious population in the country according to a 2015 NSSO survey their gross per capita expenditure is a meager Rs. 32.66 as compared to Christians in India who spend Rs.51.43. The Muslim population in India rank at the bottom on almost every economic parameter from education to land ownership. The above facts reveal any fear of dominance to be quite absurd. But it is through such fears that any measure to improve the Muslim condition as minority is labeled as minority appeasement or vote bank politics. 

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India’s Transformation Map

Just as we embark on another dominant victory by the Modi Government. With an unhindered majority, the ruling government have a unique opportunity to truly transform India. Lead by a controversial leader who proclaimed transformative-clean  leadership, where results fall short of the bold proclamations. However when one looks at the picture devoid of the loud rhetoric and social media blitz, the truth lies somewhere in between. India as a country, presents challenges that is so seemingly impossible that it takes god like tenacity to reform and transform the country.

I would like to leave the past behind with all the rhetoric and look forward 2019 and beyond. While the current government’s report card is far from transformative, yet it isn’t so bleak that they don’t deserve a second term. Yet, it is critical to not fall victim to populism and bury the country in the new Hindu rate of growth at 6-7% far below the double digit potential.

 

So what must India do in the next 5 years to truly transform?

Key policy areas to focus:

Biggest area along with land is labor reforms that is holding back development and job creation. While this is a political hot potato the expectation was for India to have laid the grounds for taking this on in a second term and therefore a missed opportunity 

Banking reforms need to be focused on KYC controls and its implementation. Second, area to reform is the credit appraisal proces, which needs greater transparency and systems. For starters there is a need for a process of generating credit reports for individuals, and secondly focus on the scoring systems both internal within banks and publicly available scoring

Professionalizing PSU bank boards, currently since PSU banks are largely government owned its filled with bureaucrats, this needs to be converted into professionals. Furthermore the executive needs to attract talent and therefore culture, compensation and management needs to a focus to manage the huge asset size these banks carry in their balance sheet

Much like the judiciary the Central bank must have an arm’s length relationship with government for the health of the financial system, better monetary and fiscal policy implementation. RBI is not an additional source for funding fiscal deficit, it’s a lender of last resort, all interference to be removed

India’s education spend is below 4% which is significantly lower than China’s current spend, that is not having the demographic swell of youth that India has. Since 2009 India has seen the rise of Education startups, with a combination of online education and greater focus on the certification process Government has to increase the reach and participation in education. This further requires democratisation of the education curriculum, which is dictated by NCERT, the focus needs to shift to certification as against tightly controlling curriculum. Curriculum needs to be federated to one or two systems aligned with the international systems.

Another focus for education reforms should be the funding of research, the number of research papers that India generates is disproportionately low to the size of the education system, India is currently ranked below Canada at #13 miles behind US and China, IIT is marginally ahead of NUS.

Delivery of Infrastructure projects and focus on construction, at the heart of China’s development was a construction machinery of such capacity that now China has to focus the capacity across the border to utilise the massive build capacity. India is hamstrung by the availability of quality capital and management of large projects. For the next 10 years India needs to build up their road and railway infrastructure not just for creating urban mobility but also to manage supply chain by developing cheaper modes of transportation including. Therefore focus on 3 key areas, development of road capacity upwards of 25,000 KMS per year, railway privatisation and building up of high speed railway systems by upgrading lines to increase reliability and monitoring. The number of railway accidents were 73 in 2018 this should be reduced to near zero, Indian railways has been one of the most profitable railways since 2007 also with an improving safety record now the focus needs to be on capacity build up and modernisation of lines.

Build up of cities, India’s per capita spend on urbanisation is $17 compared to China’s $116. This reflects in the number of cities India has developed and the quality of services in their cities. India has 40 cities compared to China’s 662. The plans are to develop a modest 100 cities in 5 years. The smart city project failed to gather the necessary momentum because of the poor outlay of 100crores as compared to a minimum outlay needed of at least 4 times. The second problem that slows all infrastructure projects in India is the fund utilisation, currently the fund utilisation of smart cities in India is at 1.3%. Funds outlay is at an average of 10Cr per city over 3 years since its launch. While the ideas set are great such as credit scoring cities and the overall smart development model. The management and execution remain India’s biggest impediment for all infrastructure projects

For business growth India needs the strength of a judiciary to support enforceability of law and order and resolution of conflicts. India can never be a safe place to do business in the absence of an independent and robust judiciary. Today the judiciary is buried with 3.3Cr cases in the backlog and we have a panicking Judiciary that remains understaffed and unimaginative. India has 19 judges per million, compared to 159 in China and 450 in Russia. Clearing the backlog combined with a filter that prevents frivolous cases being admitted in courts is the immediate necessity. The second is where there needs to be self service through technology where we have small cases being quickly resolved.

Power sector still remains one of the biggest problem, while the green energy has gained up to 11% of the total  power generated, coal constitutes 57% of the installed capacity and coal plants are under immense distress, largely on account of supply constraints. Due to cost of coal and availability of water that is critical for power generation. This is further amplified by the fact number of these plants have signed high cost PPAs. This is resulting in huge losses lead by Adani and Tatas who are likely to create large unserviceable assets in the financial system. This is a critical problem that requires immediate attention as a large number of plants run a high debt default risk. 

CEA recently announced India is going to be a power surplus country for the first time in generation, while this along with focus on green energy has been this government’s marquee sectors there are miles to go. The statistic to focus on here is, China with a similar population consumes 6 times the power India consumes. India’s power generation growth in 2018 slowed to 4% as against a historical average of 7%. India’s per capita power consumption is 1,000KW, 1/4th of China and significantly lower than developed economies that consume upwards of 6,000 KW per capita. 

India’s nuclear program has plateaued after all the hoopla over the nuclear deal wherein the gross power generation growth has dropped from 38 TWh in 2016 to 35TWh in 2018. The planned capacity addition that was set at 63,000 MW by 2031-32 was cut by a third to 23,000MW. This will increase reliance on the now hamstrung coal energy. Reasons are most likely, lack of funding, supply constraints. To address this there is a need to focus capacity build on Thorium reactors, this reduces external reliance on uranium imports, which require negotiations with the international suppliers. Further there is a need to focus on safety of the plants to address growing concerns after Fukushima. 

Uniform civil code, India needs to be seen as a robust multi cultural society, while there is rising religious tension there is a need for a uniform civil code where there is no concessions to any on religion, caste or for that matter no law based on social divisions.

Law and order is critical for development and India’s safest city is ironically Delhi ranked 42 below Moscow, Kuala Lumpur ranked 10 rungs above and Mexico City. While police remains a state subject the rate of technology adoption, training and modernisation of the police are too slow to manage the security situation in the country. Further politicisation of the police force that remains in many states the private security force for powerful politicians remain a problem that stalls the dissemination of justice.

These above is merely the tip of the iceberg but are  major policy and administrative gaps that prevents us from using superlatives like India is a rising super power devoid of cynicism. If the country does not focus on the above key reforms it could turn the demographic dividend into a demographic disaster. The last thing the country needs is a disillusioned youth with youth unemployment rate at record highs of 16%, the highest in 20 years. These are dangerous signs that could spell disaster if unaddressed and drowned in all the political rhetoric. We are at an inflection point where India could truly transform under clean leadership or remain the Indian Elephant instead of the  Bengal Tiger.

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I’m back

After time well spent in the wilderness you realize how truly overrated civilization is

After a brief hiatus from writing, as I took many detours into the paths of wilderness, I believe now I am ready to once again share my worldly views. So watch out for this space...

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Spin Twins, Rising Stars and a Faltering God

The recently concluded test series between India and New Zealand was as expected a one sided affair, yet crucial for India to return to their winning ways even against a New Zealand side that seams to have lost the skills to fight.

The highlight of the one sided first test was the rise of a new spin partnership between Ojha and Ashwin, who looked like the only bowlers in a side bereft of bowling talent. Zaheer’s pace and therefore his penetration is falling at an alarming rate and Yadav’s wayward performance can be compared to on-field bouts of diarrhea. India produced a rank turner taking us back to the dark days of the 90s when Azhar’s Eleven thrashed opponents on dust bowls, only to capitulate on sporting wickets.  What was refreshing was both spinners were unafraid to toss the ball with accuracy, guile and variety, giving hope to what seems to be a dying art in a country once rich with reserves.

Two young-rising stars demonstrated technique and application on a sporting track in Bangalore. The seamers were on top and the rest of the batsmen looked like a T-20 squad that wandered into a test. Pujara’s balance on the front foot and back makes him a strong contender for the crucial No.3 and gives India hope of survival on faster tracks. He gave the impression that he belonged. Kohli could be another batting great in the making. He played crucial knocks in the second test taking a leadership role, batting with flair at the same time possessing the technique to wait out difficult periods. In time these two could form the core of India’s middle order.

Sachin’s career and the life of a star have not been very different. 1980-93, he was the Protostar sizzling hot, yet highly volatile. 1994-2010 was the Main Sequence when he shone consistently and bright. The last two years he has been the Red Giant, surpassing every batting record but losing some of the sizzle of the past. His recent performances makes us wonder has he reached Planetary Nebula, where the star runs out of gas. Well if that’s true I would say, be prepared for a Supernova, as this star ain’t dying quietly. 

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India's aging leadership

2011, a team that was touted to be one of the greatest Indian cricket had ever seen, fresh from a World Cup win, toured Australia only to be shockingly pounded into submission by an inexperienced line up. Four cricketing legends idolized and worshipped taking frequent bathroom breaks and horribly out of shape, brought the disillusioned fans crashing down to a reality that many were unwilling to face up to. History is replete with examples of stars overstaying their welcome, only to slide into mediocracy, from Elvis to Mohammad Ali. Does India cling on to an aging leadership way past their prime?

The current Indian cabinet ministry exhibits strong resemblance to the fab four, only at twice their age. The average age of the cabinet is over 65 years, the oldest is the External Affairs minister at 80 followed by the Prime Minister who will join the octogenarian club this year. When we talk about a young vibrant India its in direct contrast to the people’s representatives.  3/4^th of the cabinet is above the age of 60 and half over 70. With 65% of the population under 35 how do these leaders stay relevant?

This emanates from India’s tendency to idolize and deify their heroes and leaders for hundered of years. The tendency to cling on to an ageing leadership is not just with politicians and cricketers it extends to actors, musicians, poets and anyone with celebrity status. With the likes of Kushboo, Rajnikanth, Lata Mangeshkar,  Rabindranath Tagore, Abdul Kalam the list is endless. Some of these are stalwarts of the past but also demi gods to millions, immortals like the 330 million Hindu deities. The height of the obsession was when worshipping South Indian fans built a temple for Kushboo, a rather heavyset lead actress, who was best known for her voluptuous-hip shaking dance sequences.

A healthy leadership structure is one where there is periodic churn where young leaders replace the old, bringing with them fresh ideas and direction.  An aged risk-averse leadership will end up bottling a young energetic country, frustrating them. This was evident when scores of India’s youth took to the streets when Anna Hazare called for change; many of them had no clue about the Lokpal legislation, but were out there to vent some of the bottled tension.

A young country is dynamic, energetic and raring to go. They need the right avenues and tools to tap into these assets, where they can believe anything is possible and make it happen. They need leaders that radiate confidence and willing to make bold decisions. Sadly the current leaders and representatives of this great nation are quite the opposite. Manmohan Singh has provided tireless service to the country, but is barely audible when he addresses the nation, which itself is a rarity. In an age of hyper-communication a docile, non-communicative leadership is like a butler leading a hippie congregation.

Is the problem a reluctant youth or a stubborn incumbent. There are few like Amir Khan an actor trying to shed light on social challenges through his talk shows or Arvind Khejriwal an IRS officer turned activist. Arvind who won the Magsasay award carries on his stellar work creating greater transparency in India’s corrupt government. Will the many tiny sparks of brilliance trigger a leadership transition? Easier said than done, one must be willing to get their hands dirty to enter politics in India. The barriers are mountainous, the challenges range from deeply entrenched multi-generation dynasties to money power that few have access to. This leads to many attempting to change the system from the outside, but I’m afraid that’s like moving an elephant with a safety pin. 

India desperately needs a powerful movement for change, one that can break through powerful political and vested interests. At a time when the country seems to have lost direction and the desire to move forward, a young movement is imperative to address the critical leadership deficit.

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What's beneath the Surface?

Article first published as What's beneath the Surface on Technorati

Microsoft after talking about the much hyped Windows 8 for over a year, which lead to speculation around how the PC World and the world of lighter compact tablet computers will intersect, has finally announced Surface. An apparently well designed Microsoft tablet PC with design intricacies that are widely published. However the most interesting pitch is that the Surface will not only be your bed time read but also your Ultrabook. So in other words unlike Android that has to play catchup with the AppStore the Windows 8 platform would support the around 4 million applications already available for the Windows platform. So in other words you can enjoy the power of the Adobe Creative suite, Microsoft Office and Outlook, that forces me to switch back to my Ultrabook, available on my tablet. This is a compelling value proposition. This not only eliminates the need for me to purchase apps for previously desktop applications but will allow me to use everything I already own for Windows. Further that puts an end to the endless porting converting and switching back and forth between the PC and the tablet. Finally the browsing experience in an iPad minus flash support sends me back scampering back to my PC. With IE10 this will not be a problem.

While I have heaped praises, here comes the fine print. Windows 8 has inherently built two views the Metro mode and the Desktop mode. The Metro mode which is the tablet interface with the tiled views is a distinctly different environment from the more classic Windows Desktop. So applications that were developed for your Windows PC will function in your desktop mode as against your Metro or tablet mode, and they don't seamlessly transition when you switch modes. So you do get the power of the desktop in your tablet but only in your good old Desktop world. For applications to run effectively in a tablet environment you will have to depend on the Microsoft app store, which I would hazard a guess is still in its fledgeling state. Further the keyboard which looked like an ultra cool add-on, is a necessity in the Windows 8 world.

So yes you can own one single device, but you don't eliminate the Desktop PC. You do make a big save by not having to buy a separate Ultrabook, but in Surface you actually have a cool-compact Ultrabook with tablet functionality. While you do get to use your existing desktop apps, you don't get to use them with the tablet interface, so back to shopping in the app store. Finally not sure everyone would enjoy working on a 10.4 inch Windows Ultrabook as against the 13 inch or larger variety. For e.g a creative designer will any day like to use the larger screen in their laptops rather than hunching over a tablet.

While Surface is far from perfect, to their credit Microsoft has taken us one step closer to bidding goodbye to the PCs. By virtue of having come out with a powerful product, they will keep Apple and other tablet manufacturers on their toes. Surface will certainly force manufacturers back to the drawing boards to solve the rather challenging problem of merging the longstanding PCs and revolutionary Tablets. While we all eagerly await the next wave of Tablets, it will still be a while before we say "RIP PC".

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The rise and fall of the number one test team

Looking at the last 3 decades of Indian test cricket, 80s was a year of resilience, 90s the nadir and 2000-2010 victorious. I don’t even want to second guess, what would 2010-20 look like, as it seems like a decade of clean sweeps. The Indian team has always been strong at home but as a touring side has had a history of capitulation.

India is the wealthiest cricket team in the world, they practically run ICC, have the greatest batsmen in international cricket, hold almost all batting records, access to the best coaches and coaching facilities. Name it, we got it. Yet India until 2000 had won 3 test matches out of 76 tour games, that’s a win probability of fewer than 4%. They had won just one series against England in 1986 for 20 years, not including a fledgling Sri Lanka in 93. Touring games were virtually over before they began; India was at best a boost for the home team, before a major tour. Out of form batsmen got back into form, bowlers bowled their career best spells and teams strolled to victories.

Towards the end of 90s India hit rock bottom with the match fixing scandals. India’s greatest cricketing son struggled to lead the team with the same success he enjoyed with the bat. With the turn of the millennium when everything was doom and gloom, in walked Sourav Ganguly. Unfairly cast aside after a one match opportunity in 1992, he came back roaring with a century on debut in 1996. It was a sign of a character with steely resolve, focus and one of the feistiest players cricket has seen. A team that lacked all three of Sourav’s virtues received the perfect tonic with his captaincy. Combined with John Wright’s perseverance and focus on getting the basics right, was a success formula like none other in the history of Indian cricket.

Between 2000 and 2010, India won 9 series out of 22 while touring abroad. This included wins against England, Pakistan, West Indies, Sri Lanka and New Zealand, four of them more than a handful in home conditions. But what was truly incredible for a country that won 3 matches in 20 years, won 23 matches while touring in 10 years. During this period India showed incredible resolve, belief and came back from virtually impossible positions to win. Unlike the 90s, when India usually went flat and let oppositions walk all over them, Sourav’s fire was the ideal fillip for flagging spirits. He was also not one to shy away from mind games and intimidation. He was in fact one step ahead of them when he made Steve Waugh wait for the toss before the match or did the now famous T-shirt act. The aggression brought adrenaline and intent, to what was a rather timid team.

If 2010 was a glorious decade in Indian cricket history. 2020 seems like a decade for 20-20. The IPL has virtually transformed cricket in India. Cricket was a sport played by half a billion Indians on dusty dirt tracks, but it was maybe a handful of batsmen in the playing eleven who made the big media contracts, the rest were impoverished struggling cricketers. IPL changed all of that, a six weeks extravaganza that saw new stars emerge and made many more millionaires. All of a sudden all batsmen were practicing lap sweeps off fast bowlers, right-handers played left handed and helicopter shots. Dravid who is by far a thoroughbred technician, was playing scoops across the line and over the covers, showing the new crop of talent the future of cricket.

The fab-four got an extended lease, while BCCI bought time, playing merry go round tours with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. During this time the selectors tried Ajinkya Rahane, Cheteshwar Pujara, Suresh Raina, Yuvraj Singh, Murali Vijay, Virat Kohli and Abhinav Mukund. All bright talents in the shorter swashbuckling form, but completely lacked the technique for sterner tests, where bowlers were not push over dummies. An ageing fab four stood behind numbers taller than their shrinking forms, from years of carrying the burden of a billion cricket-crazy fans and insane tour schedules. An appropriate glorious parting gift would have been the world cup, but who will take their place? All of a sudden Indian test batsmen are a scarce commodity as coaching manuals were burnt. Some in fact predicted the demise of a tradition over a 100 years old, as the popular lucrative format seemed to replace the old. Fortunately cricket lies in more reliable hands. Only time will tell if an increasingly corporate BCCI may have killed the golden goose, as they are left with an average crop of inexperienced test cricketers and extremely irate fans after watching their country’s pride and glory getting publicly flogged. But something tells me we wouldn’t have to wait very long.

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